As we remain under a Covid-19 lockdown with over 39,000 deaths in the U.S. so far, the discussion has shifted to re-opening. That is understandable as the status quo is economically and socially unsustainable. Nationwide, over 20 million people have applied for unemployment in the past 4 weeks raising the unemployment rate to about 18%, highest since the Great Depression. Economic panic has been averted for now by injecting several trillion of liquidity, a lot of which will likely never be repaid. However, with greatly reduced individual incomes and loss of consumer confidence, recovery will be far slower than indicated by the stock market and the sooner we start, the better.
In following the international response to the pandemic, I have become convinced that personal protection equipment (face masks, gloves, and perhaps even disposable coveralls) together with social distancing and testing should have been the first and possibly sufficient response at the onset of the pandemic, before throwing trillions to mitigate the consequences of unpreparedness and bad decisions. Now that we are discussing re-opening, mandatory face masks in close-contact spaces such as stores, workplaces and public transport should also be a priority. Provided that those are available and enforceable, we should reopen everything except schools and elder care facilities without any further delay. Some people may elect to continue self-isolation and they should be given that option with a guarantee that their jobs will be preserved for the next several months while receiving unemployment benefits during that time. We must reopen sporting events without audiences as sports are a major psychological factor in returning to normalcy and athletes are not a high-risk population. We must reopen flights and destinations while monitoring all passengers for active infections by use of infrared cameras or thermometers. We should carry out antibody testing at the maximum rate possible, while maintaining traceable records of test results that would be accessible on demand by employers for appropriate workplace safety measures and by airlines for prescreening and separation. And we should coordinate preventive measures and enforcement internationally so that international borders can reopen immediately, as that is the only way that airlines, hotels, restaurants, attractions, and cruise ships will begin to recover and re-employ their workers and vendors. We didn’t shut down travel after 9-11 and we shouldn’t shut it down after Covid-19.
Finally, we should immediately begin work on compiling a worldwide database to analyze the effects of the various governmental responses on the rates of infections and deaths, for we need to be prepared to avoid an economically devastating relapse or a future, deadlier pandemic.
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